Posed as a contest, green hydrocarbons versus green hydrogen is the wrong question. They are not substitutes competing for the same dollar; they are different points in the same value chain, with very different policy support, demand certainty and time-to-cash. After OBBBA, and after a year in which crude has whipsawed from $55 to $120, the allocation question has a clearer answer than the slogans suggest, and it turns almost entirely on one thing: the incentive stack. They A

The sustainable aviation fuel debate spends most of its energy on the wrong question. It asks which technology wins, HEFA, alcohol-to-jet, power-to-liquid, when the technologies all work and demand is already guaranteed by mandate. The question that actually decides who makes money is narrower and less discussed: which producer controls feedstock. Feedstock is 50 to 70% of the cost of SAF, and the supply of the cheap feedstock is capped. That makes SAF a feedstock-spread busi

Roughly 60 clean-hydrogen projects, more than 4.9 million tonnes a year of planned capacity, were cancelled in 2025. The technology did not stop working. The economics only ever closed on a single subsidy, the demand never showed up at the price, and OBBBA just lit a fuse under the subsidy. Here is the arithmetic a 2026 investment committee actually needs. The 60-Project Reset These were not fringe ventures. Air Products walked away from a multi-billion-dollar project; BP and

Most electrolyzer investment cases are really 45V cases wearing a technology costume. They turn on a production credit that, under OBBBA, expires for any plant that has not begun construction by 1 January 2028. Strip the credit out, and a harder set of questions appears: what does the machine cost to run on real, intermittent power, and what is it worth to anyone when the subsidy is gone? The answers are not the ones the capex headlines suggest. The Capex Race Is the Wrong Ra

Fischer-Tropsch synthesis is a century old. The reason FT routes to sustainable aviation fuel keep failing is almost never the chemistry. It is the build, the ramp, and the operating margin. Here is what actually moves the return, with numbers. $456 Million, Proven Technology, and Still Dead Fulcrum BioEnergy is the cautionary tale every SAF investor should keep on the desk. It had committed investors, a Fischer-Tropsch process licensed from established technology, and offtak