Brent crude has traded from $55 to $120 and back toward $87 in the space of four months. Any view on bio-based platform chemicals pinned to today's oil price is obsolete by next week. So this piece is built the other way round: as a reference you can return to whenever crude moves. Tell us where Brent is, and the cost curve tells you which drop-in chemicals make money, and who wins. Drop-In Is Market Access, Not a Moat A drop-in bio-based chemical, bio-ethylene, bio-MEG, bio-

There are two ways to make money in bio-based chemicals, and they are almost opposites. One is to make a molecule identical to the petrochemical it replaces and win on cost. The other is to make a molecule petroleum cannot easily make at all and win on performance. The first is a bet on the oil price wearing a green label. The second is where the potential of platform chemicals is actually unlocked, because its value does not depend on where crude trades. Most investor attent